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Documentation of Motu’s Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model
This page describes and provides documentation of the different modules within the LURNZ model. Go back to the main LURNZ page.
Please note that less recent Working Papers will not include the changes and enhancements made in the current running version of LURNZ. Documentation is ongoing.
In-page quick links: Land use change module Allocation module Intensity module GHG module Social impact module
Land use change module
The land use change module simulates four national land use changes: dairy, sheep/beef, plantation forest, and scrub. These are estimated dynamically, based on an econometrically estimated relationship between different uses of land and corresponding commodity prices (as well as accounting for time trends and an interest rate). The inputs of the module are forecasts of milk solid prices, sheep/beef prices (measured by a weighted average of sheep and beef product price), and forestry product prices.
Documentation
Lock, Kelly; Suzi Kerr and Joanna Hendy. 2007. “Estimating the Drivers of Regional Rural Land Use Change in New Zealand,” Unpublished, available upon request. Contact Suzi Kerr.
Land use change allocation module
The land use change allocation module spatially allocates the simulated land use changes (from the first module) using a weighted ranking algorithm, which uses maps of geophysical and socio-economic land attributes to identify land that is likely to change use. The output of the module is a series of rural land use maps.
Documentation
Intensity module
The intensity module simulates stocking rates for dairy, sheep, and beef livestock, and for fertiliser intensity. Combined with simulated rural land use data, the module can produce simulations on animal numbers, fertiliser usage and production levels.
Documentation
Greenhouse Gas(GHG) module
This module simulates the land-use related greenhouse gas emission per unit of economic activity. It uses the land use area data and implied emission factors (estimated using data from National Inventory Reports). The outputs are simulated GHG emissions/sequestration farm activities (methane and nitrous oxide), deforestation, harvest and replanting, afforestation, and scrub conversions and reversions. The outputs are available in time series as well as GIS layers.
Documentation
Social impact module
This module simulates emission liabilities, farm profitability changes, and economic impacts on both national level and local community level (labour market area) such as emission liabilities per capita. The outputs are available in time series, panel and GIS layers.
This module has not been fully integrated in the LURNZ code. It uses outputs from LURNZ with other data to simulate farm profitability changes, emission liabilities and economic impacts on local communities.
Documentation (results)
- Kerr, Suzi and Wei Zhang. 2009. "Allocation of New Zealand Units within Agriculture in the New Zealand Emissions Trading System," Motu Working Paper 09-16.
- Hendy, Joanna; Suzi Kerr and Troy Baisden. 2007. "The Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model Version 1 (LURNZv1): Model Description," Motu Working Paper 07-07.
- Hendy, Joanna and Suzi Kerr. 2006. "Land-Use Intensity Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand Version 1," Motu Working Paper 06-05.
- Hendy, Joanna and Suzi Kerr. 2005. "Greenhouse Gas Emission Factor Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand - Climate Version 1," Motu Working Paper 05-10.