Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

Project Summary

Our land-use change simulation model, Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ), is a computer model that predicts land-use change at a fine spatial scale over the whole country. The model produces dynamic paths of rural land-use change and maps of rural land use across New Zealand with an annual time step.

The purpose of LURNZ is to empirically investigate the potential impacts of policies designed to alter land-use decisions. LURNZ, when combined with additional components relating to specific issues, e.g. LURNZ:climate, is able to compare environmental policies related to land use that depend on science and that impact on the environment in scientifically measurable ways.

We are currently using LURNZ to investigate the potential impacts of climate change policies. In the future we will be using LURNZ to investigate the impacts of water quality regulation on nutrient loss.

LURNZv1

The first version of the LURNZ model was developed at the national level. It is econometrically estimated from national time series and then spatially extrapolated using economic and geophysical variables. It is primarily a simulation model but is also set up to produce projections based on future price scenarios.

Simulation Results

Hendy, Joanna and Suzi Kerr. 2007. “Impacts on the Pastoral Sector from Emissions Charges on Agriculture Gases: Analysis from the model Land Use in Rural New Zealand version 1: Climate” Draft Manuscript.

Hendy, Joanna; Suzi Kerr and Troy Baisden. 2006. ”Greenhouse gas emissions charges and credits on agricultural land: what can a model tell us?” Motu Working Paper 06-04.

“Emissions charges: what can the LURNZ-Climate model tell us?” in Motu Research Update, page 3, Issue 10, June 2006.

Sin, Isabelle; Emma Brunton, Joanna Hendy and Suzi Kerr. 2005. ”The likely regional impacts of an agricultural emissions policy in New Zealand: Preliminary analysis,” Motu Working Paper 05-08.

Documentation

Detailed documentation for LURNZv1 is available in the following Motu Working Paper.  The paper describes the overall modelling approach, the database underlying the model, and the construction of each module within the model.

Hendy, Joanna; Suzi Kerr and Troy Baisden. 2007. ”The Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model Version 1 (LURNZv1): Model description,” Motu Working Paper 07-07.

Model code and necessary data

The file below is intended to provide a step by step guide for running Motu’s Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZv1) model including the necessary MATLAB code and datasets. For further information please contact the LURNZ team.

LURNZv1.zip

Disclaimer on the use of the Motu LURNZ model: Normal principles for the attribution of sources of information are expected to apply in any resulting publications. However, Motu cannot be held responsible for results obtained from applications of the model, or derivative versions of the model, by outside individuals. The result of any analysis based on the use of the LURNZ model by parties outside of Motu are not endorsed by Motu. It would therefore be inappropriate for outside users to suggest or to infer that these results or interpretations attached to these results can in any way be attributed to Motu or its researchers.

LURNZv2

The second version of the LURNZ (LURNZv2) model is currently under development. 

LURNZv2 utilises a Territorial Authority (TA) level dataset to carry out the econometric estimation. This allows a more flexible econometric structure with the inclusion of additional variables.