You are here > Home / Research / Environmental Regulation / Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model
Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model
Motu’s land-use change simulation model, Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ), is a computer model that simulates land-use changes at a fine spatial scale (500m X 500m) over New Zealand. The model produces dynamic paths of rural land-use change, and maps of annual rural land use change across New Zealand.
Purpose of the LURNZ model
The purpose of LURNZ is to empirically investigate the potential impacts of policies designed to alter land-use decisions. When combined with additional components relating to specific issues (for example, LURNZ-climate modules which look at the affects of various emissions trading policies), LURNZ is able to compare environmental policies related to land use that depend on science and that affect the environment in scientifically measurable ways.
Current uses of the LURNZ model
We are currently using LURNZ to investigate the potential impacts of climate change policies. In the future we will be using it to investigate the impacts of water quality regulation on nutrient loss.
What goes into the simulation modelling?
The land-use change module is econometrically estimated from national time series, and then spatially allocated using economic and geophysical variables. It is primarily a simulation model but is also set up to produce projections based on future price scenarios.
The implications of climate policies are analysed via their effects on commodity prices. LURNZ models land-use in dairy, sheep/beef, plantation forestry, and scrub (regenerating native forest), and treats other rural uses, conservation land and urban areas as exogenous. Other LURNZ modules spatially allocate land use change, simulate dairy and sheep/beef production, and simulate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sequestration patterns.
- Olssen, Alex, and Suzi Kerr. 2011. "Modelling Land Use in Rural New Zealand," New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Annual Conference, Nelson, NZ, 25-26 August 2011.
- Timar, Levente. 2011. "Modelling Rural Land Use in New Zealand: A Discrete Choice Perspective," paper presented at the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Conference, Melbourne, 8-11 February 2011.
- Kerr, Suzi. 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change in New Zealand," speaking notes and slides from presentation at the 7th Australia-New Zealand Climate Change and Business Conference, Wellington, 1-2 August 2011.
- Kerr, Suzi; Wei Zhang and William Power. 2010. "Short Term Effects of Moderate Carbon Prices on Land Use in the New Zealand Emissions Trading System: LURNZ-Climate Land Use Change Simulations," New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Conference, Nelson, 26-7 August 2010.
- Kerr, Suzi; William Power and Wei Zhang. 2009. "Potential Scrub Changes and Its Spatial Allocation Under the New Zealand Emission Trading System," in The XXVII International Conference of Agricultural Economists, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China.
- Kerr, Suzi. 2008. "Data challenges in creating LURNZ, an economically-based model of land use in rural New Zealand," presented at Global Land Project workshop on data and model intergration for coupled models and land use change, July.
- Kerr, Suzi; Levente Timar and Wei Zhang. 2010. "Emissions Trading for Forestry and Agriculture: Policy Design and Integrated Simulations in New Zealand," poster at the Analysis, Integration and Modelling of Earth Systems Open Science Conference, Edinburgh, UK.
- Baisden, Troy; Levente Timar; ED Keller; Duncan Smeaton; A Clark; David Austin; William Power and Wei Zhang. 2010. "New Zealand's Pasture Production in 2020 and 2050," GNS Science Consultancy Report 2010/154.
- Todd, Maribeth and Suzi Kerr. 2009. "How Does Changing Land Cover and Land Use in New Zealand relate to Land Use Capability and Slope?" Motu Working Paper 09-17.
- Kerr, Suzi and Wei Zhang. 2009. "Allocation of New Zealand Units within Agriculture in the New Zealand Emissions Trading System," Motu Working Paper 09-16.
- Todd, Maribeth; Wei Zhang and Suzi Kerr. 2009. "Competition for land between biofuels, pastoral agriculture and scrub lands," in Bioenergy options for New Zealand: analysis of large-scale bioenergy from forestry. Peter Hall and Michael Jack. Scion report. pp. 122-40. Available online at http://www.scionresearch.com/bioenergy+report.aspx.
- Shepherd, James D.; Anne M. Sutherland; Ian Payton; Suzi Kerr; Wei Zhang and William Power. 2008. "Nature and Scale of Eligible Post-1989 Non-Planted Forests," Landcare Research Contract Report: LC809/033.
- Hendy, Joanna; Suzi Kerr and Troy Baisden. 2008. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Charges and Credits on Agricultural Land: What can a Model Tell Us?" In Clean Development Mechanism and Law, Amicus Books series, ed. L Lakshmi. Hyderabad, India: The Icfai University Press, pp. 198-209.
- Wratt, David; Brett Mullan, Andrew Tait, Ross Woods, Troy Baisden, Donna Giltrap, Kelly Lock, Joanna Hendy, Suzi Kerr, Adolf Stroombergen and Alek Stojanovik. 2008. "Costs and benefits of climate change and adaptation to climate change in New Zealand agriculture: what do we know so far?" Contract report by EcoClimate Consortium: Integrated Research on the Economics of Climate Change Impacts Adaptation and Mitigation, Wellington, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.
- Hendy, Joanna and Suzi Kerr. 2007. "Impacts on the pastoral sector from emissions charges on agriculture gases: analysis from the model Land Use in Rural New Zealand version 1: climate," Motu manuscript.
- Hendy, Joanna; Suzi Kerr and Troy Baisden. 2007. "The Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model Version 1 (LURNZv1): Model Description," Motu Working Paper 07-07.
- Funk, Jason and Suzi Kerr. 2007. "Restoring Forests Through Carbon Farming on Maori Land in New Zealand/Aotearoa," Mountain Research and Development, 27:3, pp. 202-205.
- Hendy, Joanna; Suzi Kerr and Troy Baisden. 2006. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Charges and Credits on Agricultural Land: What Can a Model Tell Us? Motu Working Paper 06-04.
- Kerr, Suzi. 2006. "The Political Economy of Structural Reform in Natural Resource Use: Observations from New Zealand," paper prepared for National Economic Research Organisations meeting, Paris, June 2006.
- Hendy, Joanna and Suzi Kerr. 2006. "Land-Use Intensity Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand Version 1," Motu Working Paper 06-05.
- Hendy, Joanna and Suzi Kerr. 2005. "Greenhouse Gas Emission Factor Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand - Climate Version 1," Motu Working Paper 05-10.
- Stillman, Steven. 2005. "Examining Changes in the Value of Rural Land in New Zealand between 1989 and 2003," Motu Working Paper 05-07.
- Sin, Isabelle; Emma Brunton, Joanna Hendy and Suzi Kerr. 2005. "The Likely Regional Impacts of an Agricultural Emissions Policy in New Zealand: Preliminary analysis," Motu Working Paper 05-08.
- Kerr, Suzi. 2004. "Efficient Contracts for Carbon Credits from Reforestation Projects," New Zealand Science Review, 61:1, pp. 18-23.
- Kerr, Suzi; Shuguang, Liu, Alexander, Pfaff and Flint Hughes. 2003. "Carbon Dynamics and Land-Use Choices: Building a Regional-Scale Multidisciplinary Model," The Journal of Environmental Management, 69:1, pp. 25-37.
- Kerr, Suzi. 2003. "Motu, Excellence in Economic Research and the Challenges of ‘Human Dimensions’ Research," Motu Working Paper 03-05.
- Kerr, Suzi. 2003. "Efficient Contracts For Carbon Credits From Reforestation Projects," Motu Working Paper 03-12.
- Kerr, Suzi. 2003. "Indigenous Forests and Forest Sink Policy in New Zealand," Motu Working Paper 03-15.
- Kerr, Suzi; Liu Shuguang, Alexander Pfaff and Flint Hughes. 2003. "Carbon Dynamics and Land-Use Choices: Building a Regional-Scale Multidisciplinary Model," Motu Working Paper 03-06.
- "Emissions charges: what can the LURNZ-Climate model tell us?" in Motu Research Update, page 3, Issue 10, June 2006.
- "Emissions Charges: What Can the LURNZ-Climate Model Tell Us?" Motu Research Update, Issue 10 (June 2006), p. 3.
- "The Benefits of Being Wrong: Monitoring Environmental Compliance," Motu Research Update, Issue 9 (November 2005), p. 4.
- Kerr, Suzi and Joanna Hendy. 2004. "Drivers of rural land use in New Zealand: Estimates from National Data," Motu Manuscript.
LURNZ data
Motu is currently compiling a database of rural data as part of our Land Use, Climate Change and Kyoto: Human Dimensions Research to Guide NZ Policy research programme. This data is used in our Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model to develop the underlying econometric modelling and the spatial emissions model.
Documentation of Motu’s Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model
This page describes and provides documentation of the different modules within the LURNZ model.
Motu’s Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model at work: Simulation results
This page contains examples of LURNZ model simulation results.